If Past Is Prologue

Since President Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 18%, experiencing a choppy downward trend during the administration’s first 100 trading days. While some market participants may interpret this as a negative signal, historical precedent suggests early volatility under this administration is not unusual.
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During the first quarter of Trump’s initial term in 2017, Bitcoin also exhibited notable volatility—initially rising over 40% before correcting sharply in March. This drawdown coincided with the SEC's rejection of the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF and growing tensions over the Bitcoin block size war, particularly as the SegWit activation debate intensified. Despite that turbulent start, Bitcoin ultimately went on to rally nearly 4,000% by the end of Trump’s first term, reinforcing the asset’s resilience in the face of policy uncertainty and technical debates.

In 2025, the drivers of volatility are more macroeconomic in nature. The most recent drawdown coincided with growing market anxiety around a new wave of protectionist policies—most notably, the sweeping tariff package scheduled to take effect on April 2. While digital assets are not directly affected by tariffs, second-order effects such as inflationary pressure, tighter liquidity conditions, and shifting capital flows may influence investor positioning in risk assets like Bitcoin.

Markets are also contending with broader uncertainty around the structure and mandate of the newly announced Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), created via executive order. As in 2017, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory may ultimately depend less on short-term policy swings and more on how well it adapts to macro shifts, regulatory developments, and evolving investor narratives.

This chart compares BTC price performance during the first 100 trading days of Trump’s 2017 and 2025 terms, providing a visual anchor for how similar early volatility can produce dramatically different outcomes depending on the prevailing market regime.

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