Are Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycles Coming to an End?
Key Takeaways
- BTC holds near highs as investors are favoring hard assets over fiat and bonds
- US debt set to rise $3–$5T over next decade, driven by expected Trump tax bill
- Previous cycles suggest a BTC top in Q4; global rate easing may extend the rally
Digital Asset Commentary
Bitcoin continues to trade just below all-time highs despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traditional risk-off assets like gold and oil have rallied, while the US dollar and Treasury yields remain subdued. This may signal a growing investor preference for fixed-supply assets and commodities over fiat currencies and long-term bonds, which continue to see aggressive issuance.
Despite the efforts of DOGE advocates and a Republican-controlled House and Senate, the US debt burden is projected to grow by another $3–$5 trillion over the next decade, driven by the likely passage of Trump’s proposed big beautiful bill.
The broader question facing both digital asset investors and crypto-curious is whether Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle structure will hold. If so, historical patterns suggest a market top could arrive by year-end. Previous cycles have not sustained upward momentum beyond ~1,100 days from the cycle price trough or ~550 days from the Bitcoin halving. By either measure, this implies the current cycle has roughly 100–130 days remaining, placing a potential cycle peak in Q4 2025.
However, previous cycle tops in 2018 and 2022 occurred during global rate-hiking regimes, not easing cycles. Today, interest rates are broadly trending lower, with several central banks, including the US, UK, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, and Brazil, set to make rate decisions this week. In the US, CPI remains slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, while unemployment sits at 4.2%. May’s PCE is expected to come in around 2.25%. Although Chair Powell is unlikely to cut rates at this meeting, any signals of reduced quantitative tightening or forward guidance on eventual rate cuts could lift risk assets. Additionally, Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and a potential Trump appointed replacement is expected to lean more dovish, possibly accelerating the pace of future rate cuts.
