Gold at Highs, Crypto on Hold

Key Takeaways

• BTC & alts lag gold; Q4 seasonality & the 4-year cycle may guide the next move
• Digital asset treasuries (DATs) have raised over $20B in 2025
• SEC approval of Generic Listing Standards could unlock a myriad of crypto ETFs

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Digital Asset Commentary

Concerns over USD debasement remain strong as gold hits another all-time high today, marking one of its best yearly performances ever, an inverse of the dollar’s trajectory. Despite this backdrop, Bitcoin and altcoins have not followed suit, consolidating and trending lower over the past week. This is not unusual, as digital assets have historically performed better in Q4 than in Q3.

Another factor supporting the current rally is Bitcoin’s well-known 4-year cycle, which has repeated several times since inception. The present rally is approaching the same duration as the prior two cycles, suggesting a more bearish setup could emerge in 2026. However, sustained global liquidity could determine whether this cycle follows the usual pattern or extends further into 2026. Institutional buying has also been a key driver this year, with digital asset treasury firms raising over $20 billion, according to The Block. Companies such as Strategy, Metaplanet, and BitMiner continue to raise capital for additional purchases of BTC, ETH, SOL, and other altcoins beyond their initial allocations. That said, fundraising momentum slowed significantly month-over-month.

Adding to potential altcoin tailwinds in Q4 is the SEC’s recent approval of Generic Listing Standards for new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In a statement, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said, "By approving these generic listing standards, we are ensuring that our capital markets remain the best place in the world to engage in the cutting-edge innovation of digital assets. This approval helps to maximize investor choice and foster innovation by streamlining the listing process and reducing barriers to access digital asset products within America’s trusted capital markets."

According to James Seyffart at Bloomberg Intelligence, nearly 100 separate crypto ETFs are awaiting approval. If greenlit, they could provide investors with a wide range of new vehicles to participate in the growing altcoin ecosystem.