Shutdown Nears End as BTC Eyes Megaphone Breakout

Key Takeaways

• Fresh economic data could lift Fed’s “data fog” and division regarding rate path
• Trump floats $2K tariff dividend amid lingering inflation ahead of midterms
• BTC down 20% from recent highs, megaphone targets $146K–$160K on breakout

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Digital Asset Commentary

The US government shutdown is expected to end after 40 days, paving the way for the resumption of economic data collection and releases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “data fog”, and his resulting hesitation on further interest rate cuts, may soon lift. Still, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted, “The fog might tell you to slow down, but it doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road.”

Adding to expectations of a potential liquidity boost is President Trump’s proposed income-based $2,000 tariff dividend, floated on social media yesterday morning. The COVID-era stimulus programs led to significant inflationary pressures that the economy is still contending with today.

The crypto market, meanwhile, has mirrored Washington’s paralysis. Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% from its recent all-time high, weighed down by ETF outflows, concerns that the four-year rally may be ending, and long-term holders cashing out, as reflected in on-chain data. Altcoins have fared even worse, many remain negative year-to-date and are still hovering near post-deleveraging lows following the October 10th washout.

So far, Q4 has underperformed typical seasonal trends. Amid the all-time-high anxiety, Bitcoin’s price has traced a megaphone pattern, defined by a series of higher highs and lower lows. If this pattern resolves to the upside, the projected measured move, based on the depth of the formation, could lift BTC to the $146K–$160K range, potentially marking the year’s high.

Price has so far held the key 50-week moving average as support, with further upside momentum likely if BTC reclaims the 20-week moving average. The decisive test for a renewed bullish breakout lies at an all-time-high retest, the outer edge of the megaphone pattern.