The Hot Streak Continues

Key Takeaways

• BTC hit a record $112,000, with strong ETF inflows & no signs of technical exhaustion
• Macro factors like rising debt, liquidity and bond yields are fueling fixed supply assets
• The BTC bull run duration nears historical cycle limits, suggesting a peak in Q4

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Digital Asset Commentary

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000 last week, fully recovering from the 30% drawdown earlier this year with a 50% rally from April’s lows. US Bitcoin ETFs also saw a weekly net inflow of $2.75 billion. Potential price resistance lies at the $120k R1 yearly pivot and in the $140k–$160k range, based on Fibonacci extensions of the previous trading range. The daily RSI, currently at 67, has not yet confirmed the bearish divergence typically seen at local BTC tops. Additionally, aggregated margin funding shows no signs of excessive euphoria.

Bitcoin’s dramatic rebound comes amid rising global bond yields, expanding global liquidity, and growing unease over tariff-related tensions. Still ahead is the potential passage of President Trump’s tax bill, which fails to address the nearly $37 trillion US debt burden and may further strain the bond market. In this environment, fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin could continue to surge, especially if the US moves toward any form of yield curve control to suppress long-end yields.

Fueled by the dual tailwinds of rising global debt concerns and increasing US regulatory clarity, Bitcoin has posted seven consecutive weeks of gains. Since 2014, eight straight positive weekly closes have only occurred three times, and nine in a row has never happened. Historically, after eight consecutive weekly gains, the following week has never been positive, though this is based on a limited sample size. However, the market has always been higher six months and one year later.

Additionally, the current bullish run from the 2022 low is approaching the typical duration seen in previous BTC cycles. However, the outsized returns of past cycles are unlikely to be repeated, as diminishing returns are expected with the maturation of the asset class. A cycle peak in Q4 of this year appears possible, unless this rally exceeds the length of prior cycles. Historically, altcoins tend to deliver their strongest returns during the final stages of a BTC bull market.

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