"The Most Beautiful Word"

Weekly Market Review: The Most Beautiful Word

Feb 10, 2025 | Josh Olszewicz, PM & Trading

‍

Key Takeaways

Markets continue to hold a reactionary stance towards tariff headlines
BTC has pulled back in the face of uncertainty, with altcoins down further
State reserves and pensions could drive positive BTC price action in Q2

‍

Digital Asset Commentary

Tariff headlines and rhetoric continue to dominate market expectations, with Trump considering new tariffs on China, Japan, the EU, and the UK this week. This tariff uncertainty and impact likely contributed to a rise in the UMich inflation expectations survey from 3.3% in January to 4.3% in February. The survey also shows a strong political bias, with Dems at 5.1%, Independents at 3.7%, and Repubs at 0%. Markets have leaned toward trading on the headline numbers for these economic data point releases and seem to be unconcerned with looking under the hood.

Fear and uncertainty around trade policies have made investors more cautious, especially in risk markets like digital assets. Altcoins, which typically perform best in rate easing and rising liquidity environments, have underperformed relative to BTC significantly in recent weeks. With the Reverse Repo nearly fully drained of its $2.5T and an upcoming Treasury General Account drawdown of $800B, liquidity may increase in the coming months.

While a federal BTC strategic reserve appears unlikely in the near term, 20 state legislatures have now proposed BTC purchases. If these bills pass, it could trigger the seasonally strong price action typically seen in Q2, which has posted a median return of +7.38% since 2013. Pension funds in Wisconsin and Michigan have already disclosed significant holdings in BTC ETFs. As of 2024, global pensions and endowments are estimated to total nearly $60 trillion.

‍

Download Weekly Commentary

This site is for informational purposes only.
‍
This information within it is not intended as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Such offerings may only be made by prospectus and offering documents. Carefully consider the risk factors, investment objectives, fees, expenses, and other information associated with before making an investment decision. All investments are speculative, may be illiquid and involve a high degree of risk, uncertainty, and there is risk of the complete loss of the investment. There is no guarantee that any specific outcome will be achieved. We do not offer tax, financial, accounting or legal advice. The summary set forth on this website does not purport to be complete, and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the definitive offering documents.

The materials on this website or any third-party websites accessed herein are not associated with and have not been reviewed or approved by: (i) Canary Capital Group LLC or the products sponsored by Canary Capital Group LLC; or (ii) the marketing agent of Canary Capital Group LLC’s products. Each of the above hereby disclaim any and all information, products, or services described on this website or any third-party website accessed herein.

‍This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of positing, and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive, and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.

This material is published in good faith but no advice, representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by us or by any person as to its adequacy, accuracy, completeness, reasonableness or that it is fit for your particular purpose, and it should not be relied on as such. This material does not purport to be complete and is subject to change. You acknowledge that certain information contained in this website supplied by third parties may be incorrect or incomplete, and such information is provided on an "AS IS" basis. We reserve the right to change, modify, add, or delete, any content and the terms of use of this website without notice.

No information on this website constitutes business, financial, investment, trading, tax, legal, regulatory, accounting or any other advice. If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided, please consult your financial or other professional adviser.

Investment involves risks. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Any strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective.

This website has not been, and will not be submitted to become, approved/verified by, or registered with, any relevant government authorities under the local laws. This website is not intended for and should not be accessed by persons located or resident in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person's nationality, domicile, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of this website is prohibited or contrary to local law or regulation or would subject us to any registration or licensing requirements in such jurisdiction.