The Saylorverse
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin relative outperformance to tradfi continues and MSTR strength grows
- Saylor continues to acquire BTC with funds raised via MSTR and STRK ATM
- MARA is deeply negative YTD and its large BTC treasury holds no premium to NAV
Digital Asset Commentary
As we continue another week of US stocks, US dollar and US bonds trending lower, Bitcoin’s relative outperformance continues to shine. Despite the negative BTC performance YTD, Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) is holding in the green. Last week, Saylor acquired an additional 6,556 BTC, bringing the total BTC holdings to a whopping 538,200 BTC or $47.3B with an average cost basis of $67,766. Saylor is also able to tap more capital via STRK at-the-market (ATM) offering, a Series A perpetual preferred stock offering that pays an 8.00% fixed dividend.
The premium to NAV on MSTR’s BTC holdings has held around 1.88x, after reaching a peak of 3.41x in November 2024. So long as the premium is >1.0x, further Bitcoin purchases by Saylor via ATM offering are likely. Additionally, as the premium widens, the short MSTR/long spot BTC pair trades are increasingly used to capture the arbitrage opportunity. If Saylor doesnt use the ATM to dull the premium, then someone will eventually do it for him. While some BTC holders have raised concerns about concentration risk, Saylor has stated he has no intention of pausing or scaling back Bitcoin purchases.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), a Bitcoin mining company, holds the second-largest BTC treasury with 47,600 BTC. Unlike MSTR, MARA is down 25% YTD. The company has adopted a similar strategy to Saylor’s, raising capital through equity and convertible bond offerings to purchase BTC on the open market. However, Bitcoin miners like MARA have faced several headwinds, including reduced revenue following the April 2024 halving, historically low transaction fees on the BTC network, ATH network difficulty, and a cooling of the AI/HPC investment narrative after last year’s hype.
